VOTING SYSTEMS First Past the Post

It was a right-wing Tory, attacking a 1970s Labour government, who came up with this phrase, a great starting point when considering the flaws in FPTP, a system used in very, very few democracies - and not even for the many other UK non-general elections.

THE ELECTIVE DICTATORSHIP

Lord Hailsham was condemning how a party with a Commons majority could essentially rule free if any effective opposition.

The Tories didn't win over 50% of votes in 2019. There is a clear anti-Brexit majority from the election vote. Yet they have a massive Commons majority, so the only way they'll face any effective opposition will not be in parliament (though the Lords might pose some temporary barriers for them to simply knock down).

Instead, the Supreme Court is one of three avenues of potential opposition or limits on their decision-making. The majority of UK citizens will not have any effective voice in their parliament for the next five years. Scottish voters have already, 1 day after the election, been warned that their overwhelming pro-independence SNP vote is meaningless. They will not get the second independence referendum they have democratically mandated the SNP to pursue. They will not get a second Brexit referendum either despite the huge pro-remain majority. They instead will be dictated by English MPs.

Unless the Supreme Court rules that an independence referendum must be held because of the terms of the Act of Union and the amendments that set up devolved government.

The 1980s saw Scotland erupt in fury at a similar situation. They overwhelmingly elected Labour MPs, but were ruled by an extreme right-wing Tory government under Thatcher. When she imposed the poll tax, a rather unsubtle attack on the poor, there was immediate civil unrest. The street protests were so huge and prolonged that it would be a key factor in the Tories kicking her out and replacing her with the moderate John Major, who quickly scrapped the poll tax. I predict Scotland will see scenes like those in Barcelona/Catalonia, mass protests over the denial of an independence vote.

The third avenue of limits on a government with no meaningful opposition within parliament comes from international relations. Corbyn revealed the secret negotiations over the NHS with the US. Various Tories have been giving speeches for years on how Brexit gives Britain the chance to become an ultra-low corporate tax centre - a tax haven. I predict the EU will get tough with the UK on post-Brexit trading rules. And the USA will trample over British business and public sector in any negotiated deal given the huge difference in power.

2019 ELECTION - THE NUMBERS

Green MPs elected in yesterday’s general election represented more than 850,000 votes while SNP MPs represented under 26,000, according to figures from the Electoral Reform Society.

More than 330,000 votes were needed to elect a Liberal Democrat, compared to 50,000 for Labour and 38,000 for Plaid Cymru and Conservative candidates.

Meanwhile, the Brexit Party won more than 642,000 votes but failed to get any representatives in the House of Commons.

Overall, the Electoral Reform Society claims that 45.3% of votes did not get any representation, because of the number of voters who didn’t support the winning candidate.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/12/general-election-2019-uk-live-labour-tories-corbyn-boris-johnson-results-exit-poll

See https://mobile.twitter.com/electoralreform/status/1205435581402099713?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-34556447883617819625.ampproject.net%2F1912120230490%2Fframe.html

2019 ELECTION NORTHERN IRELAND analysis

The raw facts from the BBC, then a variety of analysis/opinion pieces - often focused on the crisis the results, and PM Johnson's abandonment of unionist concerns, pose for DUP/unionism. (Here's the BBC's immediate analysis, and a slightly later article - both highlight the DUP's crisis.)

A good starting point from the Newsletter:

They also featured Jim Allister responding to the slide by the DUP.

The BT hub on the 2019 election is a great resource

It includes features like this, reflecting on debate within unionism on how to respond to the rise of the Alliance and Johnson's treatment of unionism.

This press blog from the Republic reflected on the seismic shift the 2019 results represented:

NI PARTIES UUP

They used to be in the position of the DUP, the dominant unionist party and therefore the dominant party in Northern Ireland.

Now unionism faces becoming secondary to nationalism - will the general election tally of 9 nationalist v 8 unionist MPs be reflected in the next assembly elections? Will the Alliance further eat into the unionist share?

The UUP are historically linked to the Tories - their full name is the Conservative AND Unionist Party. But as the UUP became an electoral irrelevance and the DUP negotiated a supply and favour alliance, that link has been lost.

Now, as leader Mike Nesbitt openly acknowledges, they face the ultimate defeat because of their former Tory allies' Brexit policy: the breakup of the UK. It will require a favourable Supreme Court ruling and probably civil unrest in the scale of the anti-poll tax revolt, but Scotland looks set to secede (leave).

The path for Northern Ireland will not be a peaceful one, but the humiliating secondary status and separation that the still officially unionist Tory Brexut deal will bring makes it hard to see how a majority won't eventually form for a reunited Ireland. As the moderate wing of unionism, the UUP could return to the fore in negotiations over that. It was they and the SDLP who negotiated the GFA, not the hard-line SF/DUP.

While the DUP benefit from a clear image, albeit one that horrified mainland Brits when national media shone a spotlight on them over their deal with the Tories (having ignored cash for ash and the potentially deadly deadlock over the Assembly), the UUP have a very, very weak identity, something Nesbitt acknowledges.

“You’ve got rural conservative and urban progressive and we’re going to have to make a decision, one or the other,” he said.

“We can’t go on trying to please everybody because you end up in the middle of the road and if you’re there you get knocked down by traffic coming in both directions.”

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/mike-nesbitt-brexit-is-unionist-own-goal-and-may-lead-to-end-of-the-uk-1-9174692

 

PRESS REGULATION

If you want to know how good press regulation is just ask me about The Rock ... snowflake!

Here's a case that may well in time define the failure of the 4th attempt at self-regulation, and the ongoing success of lobbying to prevent statutory regulation.

Mail on Sunday made false claims about Labour's tax plans

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/09/ipso-rebukes-mail-on-sunday-over-labour-movers-tax-claim?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail

The erroneous article was published in June, and the press regulator ruled on the inaccuracy in November. The MoS must now publish Ipso’s ruling on page 2 of its print edition and on the top half of its website for 24 hours. But because the paper sought a review of the process by which the decision was made, publication of the correction has been delayed until after the election.