Sunday 21 November 2021

NATO CASE STUDY: AFGHANISTAN failure

STARTER LINKS:
BBC explainer: costs of the war
BBC Afghanistan archive
Guardian Afghanistan archive
A long read: Belfer

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US DRONE STRIKE THAT KILLED 7 CHILDREN WON’T BE PUNISHED (Guardian)
'No US troops or officials will face disciplinary action for a drone strike in Kabul in August that killed 10 Afghan civilians, including seven children, the Pentagon said’

How US bombings, killings radicalised many Afghans (Guardian)
'“The insurgency was not inevitable. There was a good chance for peace in 2001. Everyone, including the Taliban accepted they had been defeated. But the US and their Afghan allies persecuted and marginalised those who’d lost the war, not just Taliban but tribal and factional rivals of those who had seized power,” said Kate Clark, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network.'


Afghanistan papers reveal US public were misled about unwinnable war (Guardian Dec 2019)
Interviews with key insiders reveal damning verdict on conflict that cost 2,300 US lives
Snippet:

Hundreds of confidential interviews with key figures involved in prosecuting the 18-year US war in Afghanistan have revealed that the US public has been consistently misled about an unwinnable conflict.

Transcripts of the interviews, published by the Washington Post after a three-year legal battle, were collected for a Lessons Learned project by the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (Sigar), a federal agency whose main task is eliminating corruption and inefficiency in the US war effort.

The 2,000 pages of documents reveal the bleak and unvarnished views of many insiders in a war that has cost $1tn (£760bn) and killed more than 2,300 US servicemen and women, with more than 20,000 injured. Tens of thousands of Afghan civilians have died in the conflict.


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BBC April 2021:
The Taliban believe victory is theirs. Sitting over a cup of green tea, Haji Hekmat proclaims, "we have won the war and America has lost". The decision by US President Joe Biden to delay the withdrawal of remaining US forces to September, meaning they will remain in the country past the 1 May deadline agreed last year, has sparked a sharp reaction from the Taliban's political leadership. Nonetheless, momentum seems to be with the militants. 
For the past year, there has been an apparent contradiction in the Taliban's "jihad". They stopped attacks on international forces following the signing of an agreement with the US, but continued to fight with the Afghan government. Haji Hekmat, though, insists there is no contradiction. "We want an Islamic government ruled by the Sharia. We will continue our jihad until they accept our demands."

On whether or not the Taliban would be willing to share power with other Afghan political factions, Haji Hekmat defers to the group's political leadership in Qatar. "Whatever they decide we will accept," he repeatedly says.

The Taliban don't see themselves as a mere rebel group, but as a government-in-waiting. They refer to themselves as the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," the name they used when in power from 1996 until being overthrown in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

Now, they have a sophisticated "shadow" structure, with officials in charge of overseeing everyday services in the areas they control.

Airpower, particularly that provided by the Americans, has been crucial over the years in holding back the Taliban's advance. The US already drastically cut back its military operations after signing an agreement with the Taliban last year, and many fear that following their withdrawal the Taliban will be placed to launch a military takeover of the country.

Haji Hekmat derides the Afghan government, or "Kabul administration" as the Taliban refer to it, as corrupt and un-Islamic. It's hard to see how men like him will reconcile with others in the country, unless it's on their own terms.

"This is jihad," he says, "it is worship. We don't do it for power but for Allah and His law. To bring Sharia to this country. Whoever stands against us we will fight against them."

UK troops to begin 'drawdown' in Afghanistan (BBC April 2021)
Selected quotes:
The UK is to "drawdown" the number of troops in Afghanistan from next month, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has said.

Confirming the planned departure of forces, Mr Wallace also warned any attacks on existing troops would be "met with a forceful response".

The UK military has been in Afghanistan since 2001, with more than 450 British troops dying during the conflict with the Taliban and fighters from al-Qaeda.

The US has said it will withdraw all forces by 11 September.

And Nato confirmed allies would begin withdrawing troops from 1 May.

The last UK combat troops left in 2014, but about 750 remain as part of the Nato mission to train Afghan forces.

US President Joe Biden has announced that American troops will leave Afghanistan by 11 September, saying it was "time to end America's longest war".

That would coincide with the 20th anniversary of the terror attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in the US in 2001.

Mr Biden said while the US "will not stay involved in Afghanistan militarily", its "diplomatic and humanitarian work" would continue.

Our defence correspondent Jonathan Beale says the UK, like most Nato allies, relies on the US's infrastructure, logistics and support in Afghanistan.

The US has some 2,500 troops in the country as part of a 9,600-strong Nato mission.

At the height of the war, Nato had more than 130,000 troops from 50 nations in Afghanistan. The UK had 9,500 personnel and 137 bases in Helmand province alone.

The speaker of the Afghan parliament, Mir Rahman Rahmani, has warned the withdrawal of foreign forces in the current circumstances will lead to civil war.

In February 2020, the US and the Taliban agreed a deal that would see the US and Nato allies withdraw all troops within 14 months if the Taliban upheld its promises, including not allowing al-Qaeda or other militants to operate in areas it controlled and proceeding with national peace talks.

Although the group stopped attacks on international forces as part of the agreement, it has continued to fight the Afghan government.

Last month, the Taliban threatened to resume hostilities against foreign troops still in the country on 1 May.

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