UN keeps the peace in space! China USA tensions

(Guardian)

China recently complained that the US was failing to keep to the UN-regulated protocols on space safety after its space station twice this year had to take evasive manoeuvres to avoid Elon Musk satellites. His company SpaceX has launched 1600 and has permission from the US government to launch 12000 more!

The UN has a Committee on the Safe Uses of Outer Space. The US has likewise had to take action to avoid military satellites launched by China.

UN attempt to link global warming and conflict blocked by Russia

 Guardian.

Meantime ... France is attempting to win agreement to end the power of veto over cases of mass slaughter (Guardian) ... but surely none of Russia, China or the US - all tied to or supporters of regimes accused of this - will agree? Over 100 nations have pledged support for the proposal, presented with Mexico. Conventionally, the UK can be expected to toe the line the US demands.

NATO basics and news

 TBC

RUSSIA UKRAINE INVASION THREAT HAS EASTERN EUROPE NATO MEMBERS NERVOUS OF US-RUSSIA DEAL

Biden has warned Russia of consequences for any such invasion and promised to move in troops and equipment if this happens, but few think the US would directly engage in military action. And this makes Eastern European members nervous as they think Russia may continue to push former USSR territories.

This is where NATO diplomacy is as important as military might, and that can include pressure on EU states to isolate Russia economically - as is the case with strong US diplomacy to push Germany and France to step back from agreeing to a new Russian gas pipeline. See Guardian article:

Officials in Poland and other eastern and central Nato countries have privately bristled at Biden’s description of seeking an “accommodation” with Russia, worrying that any trade-off could increase the danger they face from an expansionist Russia.

“Russia must not be given any say in how Nato organises the defence of its territory” or in who can join the military alliance, said the Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, in public remarks on Thursday. “What is most alarming is Russia’s desire to turn Europe into spheres of influence. It is unacceptable and morally indefensible, and Russia must be made aware of that in clear terms.”

PARTNERSHIP FOR PEACE - THREAT TO RUSSIA?

This is covered in the CCEA exam pack, but its not very clearly expressed. Sources I've used here: Nato's own guide; BBC; Wiki. From the BBC:

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Nato embarked on a series of steps designed to build new relationships with former Warsaw Pact countries and particularly with Russia, which was profoundly suspicious of the alliance's plans to expand eastwards.

In 1994 Nato offered former Warsaw Pact members limited associations in the form of the Partnership for Peace programme, allowing them to participate in information sharing, joint exercises and peacekeeping operations.

But this simply appeared to confirm Russian fears that Nato posed a creeping threat to its security.

The Nato-Russia Permanent Joint Council was established in May 1997 to give Russia a consultative role in discussion of matters of mutual interest. While Moscow was given a voice, it rarely felt that it was really listened to.

Russia's fears intensified when in 1999 the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland became the first former Soviet bloc states to join Nato, bringing the alliance's borders 400 miles closer to the Russian frontier.

The PfP was launched at a 1994 Nato summit after a push by US President Clinton to bring many former Soviet states within the Nato fold. The concept was (and is) that this operates a little like the EU membership candidacy scheme: it might lead those member states to future membership of Nato. The Wiki table below shows just how significant this programme has been. 

It has proven highly controversial with Russia - leading to accusations that they tried to engineer a coup in Montenegro to switch its affiliation with the Western powers back to Russia. Ukraine is also an original PfP member which of course, as I type in Dec 2021, is under threat of Russian invasion with Russia also directly warning the West of dire consequences if Ukraine becomes a full Nato member.

Consider that Belarus is still also a PfP member - this was, and is, a highly assertive move by Nato to spread its membership and lock former-Soviet nations into an alliance that is essentially intended to counter Russian (formerly Soviet) power and expansion. 

...

NATO CASE STUDY: KOSOVO success

2008 headline after Kosovo declared independence:

SOME KEY MOMENTS

THE BUILD-UP TO CONFLICT

1987: future Serb leader Slobodan Milosevic rallies Kosovo Serbs, a key step in his rise to power in Yuglosalvia; as President he stripped Kosovo of its regional autonomy under the constitution

1990: before Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia declared independence in 1991 it was Albanian Kosovo leaders who were the 1st to declare independence from Yugoslavia. 100,000 ethnic Albanian workers were worked, leading to a general strike. Conflict brewed as a new president (Rugova) was elected for the self-proclaimed republic

1995: The KLA (Kosovo Liberation Army) publicly announce their formation, growing out of earlier independence groups. They reacted against the perceived weakness of President Rugova and the absence of any concessions in the 1995 Dayton Accords; they declare their aim to militarily resist Serbian rule in 1997.

ARMED CONFLICT BEGINS: SWIFT, DECISIVE NATO AIRSTRIKES - BUT CIVILIAN AREAS BOMBED

1998, March: Serbia launches a military crackdown on Kosovo rebels, leading to 1000s of ethnic Albanians being forced out of their homes by militias and the Serbian army (still officially the Yugoslav army). Around 2,000 Kosovan civilians + KLA combatants killed.

1998, September: Nato gives President Milosevic an ultimatum: cease the attacks or face retribution

1999, March: a year after the armed conflict began, Nato launches 78 days of airstrikes against Belgrade, terming this a "humanitarian war". 1000s of ethnic Albanian refugees tell horror stories of suffering at the hands of Serb forces/militias.

1999, June: 'President Milosevic agrees to withdraw troops from Kosovo. UN sets up a Kosovo Peace Implementation Force (Kfor) and Nato forces arrive in the province. The KLA agrees to disarm. Serb civilians flee revenge attacks.' (BBC)

The war ended with the Kumanovo Treaty, with Yugoslav and Serb forces agreeing to withdraw from Kosovo to make way for an international presence

After the war, a list was compiled which documented that over 13,500 people were killed or went missing during the two year conflict. The Yugoslav and Serb forces caused the displacement of between 1.2 million to 1.45 million Kosovo Albanians

The NATO bombing campaign has remained controversial. It did not gain the approval of the UN Security Council and it caused at least 488 Yugoslav civilian deaths, including substantial numbers of Kosovar refugees. (Wiki)

NATO description of KFOR

 

A VERY UNEASY PEACE - WITH FRESH OUTBREAKS OF VIOLENCE. UN FORCES

2004 March - Nineteen people are killed in the worst clashes between Serbs and ethnic Albanians since 1999. The violence started in the divided town of Mitrovica.

2004 October - President Rugova's pro-independence Democratic League tops poll in general election, winning 47 seats in 120-seat parliament. Poll is boycotted by Serbs.

2004 December - Parliament re-elects President Rugova and elects former rebel commander Ramush Haradinaj as prime minister. Mr Haradinaj's party had entered into a coalition with the president's Democratic League.

2005 March - Mr Haradinaj indicted to face UN war crimes tribunal in The Hague, resigns as prime minister. [BBC]

INDEPENDENCE DECLARED; CONFLICT OVER RECOGNITION, BUT MUTUAL ASPIRATION TO JOIN EU. EU TAKES OVER UN ROLE
 

2008 Following Vienna 2006, the 1st direct talks since 1999, Kosovo declares independence - swiftly recognised by the US and UN but not Russia or Serbia. I experienced not so long after being turned away at the Serb border for having a Kosovo stamp in my passport! BBC:

2008 June - A new constitution transfers power to majority ethnic Albanian government after nine years of UN rule. Kosovo Serbs set up their own rival assembly in Mitrovica.

2008 December - European Union mission (Eulex) takes over police, justice and customs services from the UN. Serbia accepts the EU mission.

2009 January - New multi-ethnic Kosovo Security Force launched under Nato supervision, replacing a unit dominated by veterans of independence campaign against Serbia.

2012 September - The group of 23 EU countries, the US and Turkey overseeing Kosovo since 2008 end its supervisory role over the government, although Nato-led peacekeepers and EU rule-of-law monitors remain.

2013 April - Kosovo and Serbia reach a landmark agreement on normalising relations that grants a high degree of autonomy to Serb-majority areas in northern, while both sides agree not to block each other's efforts to seek EU membership.

2018 Talks over landswap with Serbia - initially supported by EU, but they reverse once the US makes its opposition clear. This remains a live possibility today, with splits in Nato over whether this is a good idea. Kosovo remains unstable with Kosovo Serbs, similarly to Bosnian Serbs, largely refusing to recognise or engage with the federal government.

2019, 2020 First the PM, then the President, resign over war crimes prosecutions.  

STARTER ARTICLES

BBC timeline (+ alternate version)

BBC (video): the war that won't end

BBC Newsbeat: NATO explained in pictures 

Wiki

BalkanInsight: 78 days of terror

NATO's own guide

IrishTimes: example of sceptical Western media from 1999

Britannica: encyclopedia entry

Euronews: Serbia/Kosovo relations explained

Looooong read: Was NATO’s decision to militarily intervene in the Kosovo War a ‘last resort’?

VIDEOS

This is a pretty good amateur video explaining the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia and outbreak of multiple wars, though the sound quality isn't great (4:58, 2015).

You can find lots of useful vids; not a bad idea when revising to try a video you haven't watched before.

A simple YouTube search (you can also try looking for BBC or C4 News features)

Most of these sources will mainly uncritically follow the line that the NATO action was legitimate and proportionate, and for exam purposes this is a case study of NATO success. There is a critique though, that NATO targeted civilian infrastructure as well as military, bombing a modern European capital city. This short Spanish video (subtitled) quotes a Serbian media worker beside a headstone commemorating his fellow workers killed by a NATO bomb hitting a media centre.

There are some unlikely features out there too - like ex-soldier now terrible solo singer James "You're Beautiful" Blunt returning to see Kosovo. There are alternate news sources like this Turkish one too, plus longer docs like this 30min one from 1999.

THE ECONOMIST: HOW DID KOSOVO BECOME A COUNTRY? 7:52 (2018)

The final point in this vid is interesting: both Serbia and Kosovo aspire to EU membership; impossible if continued hostility from Serbia continues - so could this bring about a more settled peace? The video highlights that many Kosovans (just as in Bosnia) simply reject the Kosovo identity, perceiving themselves still as simply Serbian.

NATO: HOW KFOR DEVELOPED (REFLECTS ON 20 YEARS, ESPECIALLY POST-WAR REBUILDING ROLE) 9:27 (2019)

Obviously not an objective source! Useful detail nonetheless.

BBC: KOSOVO WAR, THE CONFLICT THAT WON'T GO AWAY 5:31 (2019)

As noted in the Economist video above, this conflict may have moved past direct military confrontation, but tension and conflict over borders and national identity remains very strong - as seen in some flashpoint sporting events.

You can get a sense of how the Western media portrayed the conflict with this 1999 appeal for the UK public to donate aid to Kosovo, fronted by a BBC journalist.

BBC: GROWING UP IN KOSOVO I'VE NEVER MET A SERBIAN 8:19 (2019)

We've discussed the sectarian schooling in Northern Ireland, and the 'peace walls' that continue to divide many communities decades after the ceasefires and GFA. This video explores the reality of a sharply ethnically divided European state, whose very existence is still contested by Serbia, Russia and more.

COULD THE SERBIA/KOSOVO BORDERS CHANGE AGAIN (PEACEFULLY)? LAND-SWAP DISCUSSIONS 1:30, BBC 2018

The EU initially signalled they were in favour of this, but changed tack after the US expressed opposition. No dialogue in this video, just titles. 

...

NATO CASE STUDY: AFGHANISTAN failure

STARTER LINKS:

NATO's guide

Wiki

History.com

BBC explainer: costs of the war

BBC Afghanistan archive

Guardian Afghanistan archive

A long read: Belfer

...

US DRONE STRIKE THAT KILLED 7 CHILDREN WON’T BE PUNISHED (Guardian)

'No US troops or officials will face disciplinary action for a drone strike in Kabul in August that killed 10 Afghan civilians, including seven children, the Pentagon said’

How US bombings, killings radicalised many Afghans (Guardian)

'“The insurgency was not inevitable. There was a good chance for peace in 2001. Everyone, including the Taliban accepted they had been defeated. But the US and their Afghan allies persecuted and marginalised those who’d lost the war, not just Taliban but tribal and factional rivals of those who had seized power,” said Kate Clark, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network.'


Afghanistan papers reveal US public were misled about unwinnable war (Guardian Dec 2019)

Interviews with key insiders reveal damning verdict on conflict that cost 2,300 US lives

Snippet:

Hundreds of confidential interviews with key figures involved in prosecuting the 18-year US war in Afghanistan have revealed that the US public has been consistently misled about an unwinnable conflict.

Transcripts of the interviews, published by the Washington Post after a three-year legal battle, were collected for a Lessons Learned project by the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (Sigar), a federal agency whose main task is eliminating corruption and inefficiency in the US war effort.

The 2,000 pages of documents reveal the bleak and unvarnished views of many insiders in a war that has cost $1tn (£760bn) and killed more than 2,300 US servicemen and women, with more than 20,000 injured. Tens of thousands of Afghan civilians have died in the conflict.

...

BBC April 2021:

The Taliban believe victory is theirs. Sitting over a cup of green tea, Haji Hekmat proclaims, "we have won the war and America has lost". The decision by US President Joe Biden to delay the withdrawal of remaining US forces to September, meaning they will remain in the country past the 1 May deadline agreed last year, has sparked a sharp reaction from the Taliban's political leadership. Nonetheless, momentum seems to be with the militants. 

For the past year, there has been an apparent contradiction in the Taliban's "jihad". They stopped attacks on international forces following the signing of an agreement with the US, but continued to fight with the Afghan government. Haji Hekmat, though, insists there is no contradiction. "We want an Islamic government ruled by the Sharia. We will continue our jihad until they accept our demands."

On whether or not the Taliban would be willing to share power with other Afghan political factions, Haji Hekmat defers to the group's political leadership in Qatar. "Whatever they decide we will accept," he repeatedly says.

The Taliban don't see themselves as a mere rebel group, but as a government-in-waiting. They refer to themselves as the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," the name they used when in power from 1996 until being overthrown in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

Now, they have a sophisticated "shadow" structure, with officials in charge of overseeing everyday services in the areas they control.

Airpower, particularly that provided by the Americans, has been crucial over the years in holding back the Taliban's advance. The US already drastically cut back its military operations after signing an agreement with the Taliban last year, and many fear that following their withdrawal the Taliban will be placed to launch a military takeover of the country.

Haji Hekmat derides the Afghan government, or "Kabul administration" as the Taliban refer to it, as corrupt and un-Islamic. It's hard to see how men like him will reconcile with others in the country, unless it's on their own terms.

"This is jihad," he says, "it is worship. We don't do it for power but for Allah and His law. To bring Sharia to this country. Whoever stands against us we will fight against them."

UK troops to begin 'drawdown' in Afghanistan (BBC April 2021)
Selected quotes:

The UK is to "drawdown" the number of troops in Afghanistan from next month, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has said.

Confirming the planned departure of forces, Mr Wallace also warned any attacks on existing troops would be "met with a forceful response".

The UK military has been in Afghanistan since 2001, with more than 450 British troops dying during the conflict with the Taliban and fighters from al-Qaeda.

The US has said it will withdraw all forces by 11 September.

And Nato confirmed allies would begin withdrawing troops from 1 May.

The last UK combat troops left in 2014, but about 750 remain as part of the Nato mission to train Afghan forces.

US President Joe Biden has announced that American troops will leave Afghanistan by 11 September, saying it was "time to end America's longest war".

That would coincide with the 20th anniversary of the terror attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon in the US in 2001.

Mr Biden said while the US "will not stay involved in Afghanistan militarily", its "diplomatic and humanitarian work" would continue.

Our defence correspondent Jonathan Beale says the UK, like most Nato allies, relies on the US's infrastructure, logistics and support in Afghanistan.

The US has some 2,500 troops in the country as part of a 9,600-strong Nato mission.

At the height of the war, Nato had more than 130,000 troops from 50 nations in Afghanistan. The UK had 9,500 personnel and 137 bases in Helmand province alone.

The speaker of the Afghan parliament, Mir Rahman Rahmani, has warned the withdrawal of foreign forces in the current circumstances will lead to civil war.

In February 2020, the US and the Taliban agreed a deal that would see the US and Nato allies withdraw all troops within 14 months if the Taliban upheld its promises, including not allowing al-Qaeda or other militants to operate in areas it controlled and proceeding with national peace talks.

Although the group stopped attacks on international forces as part of the agreement, it has continued to fight the Afghan government.

Last month, the Taliban threatened to resume hostilities against foreign troops still in the country on 1 May.

MORE BBC LINKS:

• US troops to leave Afghanistan by 11 September
• Timeline: UK troops in Afghanistan
• Afghans face pivotal moment as US 'closes the book'

• The Afghan war: The short and long story
• Who are the Taliban?

UN CASE STUDY: BOSNIA failure

tbc

SEE ALSO: post on BANNING BOSNIA GENOCIDE DENIAL

Dec 2020

Bosnian/Croat split blocked Mostar election for 12 years until a case went to European Court of Human Rights for denying the right to vote. The EU, US and UK ambassadors subsequently brokered a deal for elections held this week. Guardian.

Like the GFA, the Daytona Agreement fudged some conflict points.

Concerns over new conflict potential, Guardian. Nov 2021 update: threat of war recedes as Bosnian Serbs withdraw threat to create their own army - but still intend to have a separate tax and legal system, which basically means seceding from Bosnia Herzegovina:

'[High Representative, 'international community envoy'] Schmidt’s position is under diplomatic pressure. Moscow opposed his appointment and does not recognise his authority. Russia and China both insisted that every mention of the high representative was stripped from a recent UN security council resolution on Bosnia. [Bosnian Serb premier] Dodik has refused to meet him, questioning his legitimacy.'

The story continues... 'In an interview with the Guardian, Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of the tripartite leadership of Bosnia-Herzegovina, said he would not be deterred by the outcry from London, Washington, Berlin and Brussels.' He's signalled he expects Russia and China (who both blocked any mention of the High Representative from a recent UN report) to make up any finance lost from Western sanctions. Dodik is the Serb part of the 3-member Bosnian leadership:

'Dodik has been widely condemned in recent weeks over his stated intention to withdraw the Serbian part of Bosnia-Herzegovina from state-level institutions, such as the tax administration, judiciary, intelligence agency and even the national army, in order to create a Serb force.

The proposal has been described in a report to the UN as tantamount to “secession”, and a dangerous risk to the 1995 Dayton peace accord, which ended the civil war that cost about 100,000 lives after the breakup of Yugoslavia.

That peace deal established a state, Bosnia-Herzegovina, made up of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, consisting predominantly of Bosniak Muslims and Croats, and the Serbian Republika Srpska. Bosnia’s three-member presidency is held by representatives of those three main ethnic groups.

Under the so-called Bonn powers of 1997, substantial powers of law-making were also granted to the office of the high representative (OHR) in charge of implementing the deal. Those powers were used extensively by the former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown, during his time as high representative, to centralise the administration of the country.

Most recently, Valentin Inzko, who left the post this summer, used the office to outlaw the denial of genocide, in response to attempts by some people to play down the scope of the 1995 Srebrenica massacre. This led Dodik in July to pull Republika Srpska representatives out of central institutions, and in October to propose taking back powers and transferring land owned by the central state.'

Dodik paints both the High Representative and the 3 judges appointed by the EU court of human rights as undemocratic and outside interference, and refuses to accept that the Serbs committed genocide in Sbrenica, and:

'Since 2017 Dodik has been banned from travelling to the US, or accessing to assets under its jurisdiction, after he defied Bosnia’s constitutional court by staging a referendum on celebrating Republika Srpska Day, marking the date in 1992 when Bosnian Serbs declared their own state in Bosnia.'

He says he still wants EU membership but that everyone knows enlargement is basically off the table, with France/Holland repeatedly blocking Bosnia's application to join Croatia inside the EU (he's almost certainly correct in that, which boosts his willingness to turn to Russia/China for backing)

CAMPAIGNING - Inactivism. Painting climate campaigners as elitist

See Guardian.

Bite sized Brexit

I'll gather some of our lesson materials here in time

US ended trade war with EU...but kept high tariffs on steel and more for the UK! "UK steel makers 'left behind' as US ends trade war - BBC News" https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59113868

IMMIGRATION UK

2022

HOME OFFICE RESISTS EMPIRE RACISM LESSONS

Guardian.

NOVEMBER

FRENCH INTERIOR MINISTER GERALD DARMANIAN CONDEMNS TWO-FACED BRITISH PRIVATE/PUBLIC WORDS

In private ministers are apparently cordial and professional with their French counterparts, but in public the language is condemnatory of France. The Interior Minister insists this must stop - and Macron withdrawing the UK invite to the emergency EU summit on immigration in this area, after the recent deaths, is a firm indication that patience is wearing thin.

He also insisted that British labour laws, enabling employment and housing without showing papers, were to blame (the UK says this isn't true) and that the £67m UK payment covered only part of the annual £250m cost. 'French police tear up makeshift refugee camps, destroying tents and bussing people elsewhere in France where they are encouraged to apply for asylum in France. Within weeks, the majority return to the Calais area.'

"It’s better that the British ask themselves why so many migrants want to go to the UK. This is first because the labour market of your country works in part with clandestine immigrants because in your country you can work and even pay taxes without having any identity papers or be in any kind of regular situation."

PATEL FACES COURT CASE AND REFUSAL TO ENACT PUSHBACK POLICY

Borderforce staff's trade union has joined with several charities to seek an injunction (legal block) against the policy to push boats back towards France - and are judged as likely to win. Guardian.

There is indeed talk of mimicking Australia's controversial hard-line 'offshore processing' of UK asylum applications ... in Albania. Thus despite the charity MSF advising the government 'the Australian model of “offshore processing” on the island of Nauru, on which Priti Patel’s idea seems to be based, caused “some of the worst mental health suffering we have seen in our 50 years of existence”, with a third of MSF patients attempting suicide, including children as young as nine. The letter also pointed out that the policy was recently revealed to cost more than £2.3m for each individual refugee, every year. MSF did not even get the courtesy of an acknowledgement that the letter had been received.' (Guardian long read on life inside the Dunkirk refugee camps)

Unsurprisingly, the debate around the issue is fuelled by right-wing media hostility and politicians' ... alternative reality. 'Analysis, partly based on Home Office data, shows that nearly two-thirds of people who cross the Channel in small boats are judged to be genuine refugees and allowed to remain – contradicting claims by Patel that 70% of small boats arrivals “are not genuine asylum seekers”.' (Guardian report on the UK government refusing a Freedom of Information request for its internal report on the 'pull' factors of immigration)

HOME SECRETARY PATEL TAKES RIGHT TO STRIP CITIZENSHIP WITHOUT NOTICE

Guardian opinion piece: 'It ... sends a message to a group of Britons, especially non-white citizens and particularly Muslim ones, that despite being born and brought up in the UK and having no other home, their citizenship is far from secure. It seems the lessons from the Windrush scandal have not been learned. Citizens with links to other nations are being told they could be at risk of being deprived of their British nationality without warning and for reasons deemed so security sensitive that they may never be made public.'

PRITI PATEL BLAMES OPEN BORDERS FOR GATHERING OF MIGRANTS AT FRANCE SEEKING UK ENTRY

Guardian.

UK FRANCE DEAL TO HALT RECORD IMMIGRATION ACROSS ENGLISH CHANNEL

Guardian. Some on the French side say this is down to the UK's unregulated labour system.

Guardian opinion piece looks at the gap between PM Johnson's talk of Tories creating a high wage Britain as a result of Brexit wiping out 500,000 mainly low paid EU resident workers and the reality of 11 years of Tory efforts to block EU workers rights, trample unions, deny agency workers rights and so on.

'For a century at least, and not just since we joined the European Union, the UK has depended on importing foreign labour to do its low-skilled jobs; and for the last 70 years immigration has been managed by successive governments through a series of schemes. According to Prof John Salt of University College London’s Migration Research Unit, there are few if any cases anywhere in the world where jobs that have come to be dominated by low-paid migrant labour have been transformed to better-paid work for the domestic population.

...

Poverty wages are not caused by immigration in itself, but by a failure to ensure wages and conditions for the local workforce are not forced down by exploiting migrants. The two ways to prevent a race to the bottom are by organising labour so that unions can bargain for decent pay, and by enforcing labour law. The Conservatives, with their anti-union policies and constant bonfires of regulations, brought this low-wage economy into being, however much Johnson would like to disown responsibility.

Through most of the 1960s and 1970s the share of UK national income paid out as wages was between 58% and 61%, but in the Thatcher years it declined rapidly and hit a low in the late 1990s of 52%. The share paid out in profits to private companies increased correspondingly.'

IMPACT OF UK SLASHING UN PALESTINE AID BY 50%

See Guardian.

New bill... Guardian.

IMMIGRATION INTERNATIONALLY

I'll maintain a separate post tracking UK acts and policies on this.

GREECE ULLEGAL PUSHBACK

Guardian.

OCTOBER: 

AUSTRIA, POLAND, LITHUANIA WANT EU BORDER WALL TO STOP BELARUS PUSHING OUT MIGRANTS - EU COMMISSION PRESIDENT SAYS NEVER!

(November update: Germany appeals for unity as Belarus escorts more migrants to Poland's border, Guardian)

The BBC have a special report on how Belarus is actively helping migrants, including videos from some of them as they travel across borders.

Quite a split growing in the EU. The Syrian crisis exposed these splits and now it's the efforts of Belarus' president Lukashenko, under EU sanctions for stealing an election, that are highlighting this. While the likes of Luxembourg's PM spoke up against the idea, multiple states are demanding a border wall. See Guardian.

"Poland: New law that will legalise turning away migrants at the border passed by parliament in breach of human rights law, critics say Sky News" 

POPULIST CZECH PM LOSES ELECTION FOUGHT ON ANTI-EU, ANTI-IMMIGRATION + FOLLOWING POLAND/HUNGARY MODEL

Across the EU, the immigration issue continues to dominate. In the Czech Republic the populist anti-immigration, anti-EU government party lost after right and left mainstream parties formed separate coalitions but agreed to work together after the vote to stop the Czech Republic going down the anti-democratic path of Poland and Hungary. ' Babiš fought a fear-mongering campaign that vowed to protect the Czech Republic from illegal immigrants and involved maligning the EU' - Guardian

Internal Market Bill and how Parliament works

A FIGHT WITH THE EU ... LORDS ... TORY BACKBENCHERS ... AND THE DEVOLVED NATIONS

The Herald (a Scottish broadsheet) pulled no punches in its report

Likewise their cartoonist depicted how Johnson had seemed under siege from outraged Tory backbenchers

From January, the UK government wants to continue to have a joint market across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - the "internal market".

Instead of the rules and regulations around things like food and air quality and animal welfare being set in Brussels, now they have to be set closer to home - and there is a row over who should have the final say.

Many powers are set to be directly controlled by the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish administrations, in fields including food labelling, energy efficiency and support for farmers.

However, the UK government has said the devolved administrations will still have to accept goods and services from all other parts of the UK - even if they have set different standards locally. (source: BBC, Dec 2020)

The Internal Market Act 2020 is one of the most controversial bills to ever successfully pass through the UK parliament.

It was widely characterised as breaking international law bu contradicting and breaking parts of the Brexit deal, an international treaty. 

There was much media speculation about a backbench rebellion, and frontbench resignations ... but in the event Johnson and his whips got their way: 328 of 363 Tory MPs voted with the government, as did the DUP, with just 2 Tories voting against.

The saga exposed flaws in the UK parliamentary system...

ELECTIVE DICTATORSHIP? GOVERNMENT BACKBENCHERS THE DE FACTO OPPOSITION?

Labour leader Keir Starmer was criticised for failing to whip up significant public pressure on the government. In the event, any hopes of a government lay with the prospect of a backbench rebellion, which simply didn't transpire. Of 35 Tory MPs who refused to vote with the government, only 2 actually voted against. The whip system triumphed: most Tory MPs who held principled opposition to the bill failed to vote against, fearing for their seats (Johnson had shown he could be ruthless after succeeding May, forcing out all Tory MPs who voted against his Brexit bill) and/or for their hopes of becoming a government minister whenever Johnson eventually held a cabinet reshuffle.

ELECTIVE DICTATORSHIP? WHAT ABOUT THE DEVOLVED NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS?

While the Northern Irish response was predictably split on nationalist/unionist lines, the Welsh and Scottish governments were clear in their opposition - but the UK government refused to consult or seek authority from either. The Welsh government took the case to the High Court of Justice, but lost. The Scottish Parliament voted on whether to authorise the bill's contents ... and voted against, formally denying the UK government permission to carry this out, but this had no impact on the bill passing into UK law.

As the BBC article quoted above indicates, this is a story about how powers once based in Brussels are redistributed back within the UK:

The Scottish government says a Westminster "power grab" is under way, because any responsibility which is not specifically reserved should automatically come to Holyrood.

But the UK government says what is happening in January represents "the biggest transfer of powers in the history of devolution".

ELECTIVE DICTATORSHIP? WHAT ABOUT THE HOUSE OF LORDS? plus...Biden pressure

The Lords repeatedly refused to back the bill, voting against and attaching amendments. The Commons used their power to ignore the Lords vote.

Above: a Daily Mail report 9th Nov 2020 (this saga went on for months!) also highlights the direct pressure from the incoming US president, who bluntly and undiplomatically warned that any breach of international law - especially that around the GFA - would ensure the UK would fail in efforts to win a trade deal with the USA. The EU would also threaten legal action (see Daily Mail video)

ELECTIVE DICTATORSHIP? WHAT ABOUT THE FREE PRESS?

TV news reportage did give space to a series of prominent critics, including multiple past Tory Attorney Generals (they have responsibility for ensuring government actions are compliant with laws), but the press largely reflected the right-/left-wing split. That means that the government largely escaped criticism from the Times and Telegraph (broadsheets) or the Mail, Express, Sun or Star (tabloids), facing criticism mainly from the low-circulation Guardian and Mirror only.

Indeed, the UK nationals ignored the huge story of the crucial vote on 29th September 2020, focusing instead on another potential government rebellion over covid restrictions (see Paperboy) - only the Scottish press led on the story.

READ MORE...

Executive backs down from confrontation with Lords (Dec 16, 2020, Guardian)

The Wiki.

BBC overview.

There are lots of news clips on this (YouTube), such as...

...

BREXIT AND GFA - IRISH BORDER ISSUE

C4 NEWS OVERVIEW VIDEO:

They're explaining it for their UK audience, most of whom find the NI issue/s as puzzling as you might, so hopefully you'll find this helpful!

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BBC NEWS 5MIN VIDEO ASKS UNIONISTS ABOUT HOW THEY'D FEEL IN A UNITED IRELAND.

A 2021 10min video feature.

OCT 2021 GUARDIAN EXPLAINS PROTOCOL + LIKELY EU REFORMS

A long read from the University of Bath puts the issue into historical context

It critiques the failings of the GFA as formalising separate identities and failing to deliver actual power sharing; shows how the GFA is centred on placing NI firmly within the EU. So, any imposition of a hard border (ie, a land border between the North and South) would effectively break NI's tie to the EU - and kill the GFA. 

By Feb 2021, with the DUP responding to loyalist pressure by demanding the end of the Irish Sea border and threatening a boycott of all North-South bodies, the attempted unpicking of the GFA is underway.

The DUP are essentially correct to see the Brexit protocol as nudging NI towards a united Ireland - but ignore their own key role in fostering Brexit (and Tory/Johnson rule) despite majority NI opposition to it. NI is legally in the UK, but it's  customs regulations are now outside the UK. The hard reality is that the Conservative and Unionist Party, the full traditional Tory name, saw and sees the destruction of the union, losing Scotland and NI, as a price worth paying for an English Brexit.

Johnson will fight, surely unsuccessfully, to block Scottish Indyref2, but is widely seen to have treated the DUP as convenient idiots, treating truth in a Trumpian manner as he pronounced the new protocol would mean zero forms or costs - anyone experiencing otherwise could send him the forms to tear up. In reality, such is the scale of the new cost and paperwork that to do so would take multiple truckloads - requiring lots of paperwork to get there and for drivers to avoid bringing bacon sandwiches with them...

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There was plenty enough debate about all this long before Brexit actually kicked. This 2019 opinion piece by the Irish Times' Fintan O'Toole is a good read. 

The ConservativeHome blog also showed awareness of the pending major disruption between the Tories and unionists (Tories are traditionally unionists too don't forget!) with Lord Ashcroft's privately funded polling showing a huge schism over the issue of the backstop. In a nutshell, the English Tories didn't really care about what was a critical issue for NI unionists - they didn't care enough about the fate of NI as part of the UK to really fight on this issue.

ROLLING UPDATES - mostly sourced from BBC, Guardian, Belfast Telegraph (BT), Irish Times (IT), The Times (TT)

At some point I'll sort out a subscription to the Belfast Telegraph - provides more frequent, detailed coverage (naturally) than the UK national broadsheet/qualities. Note however that both it (see Wiki) and its rival the Belfast News Letter (Wiki) are pro-unionist. The only real nationalist rival is a Southern paper, the Irish Times ...which actually is historically (Wiki) a unionist paper too! There is An Phoblacht, Sinn Fein's paper (now a magazine: Wiki). There's a v brief overall Wiki on NI media.

Don't lose sight of the roughly 20% (and growing) who are non-aligned; both the Alliance and Greens are picking up votes from people who don't define themselves within the nationalist/unionist binary that the GFA and the Assembly entrenches.

2021

HEADLINE

Outline

BIDEN BLOCKS UK TARIFF CUTS AS WARNING OVER PROTOCOL STANCE

Sky report.

SINN FEIN DON'T WANT REFERENDUM YET...BUT DO SUPPORT 12TH JULY PUBLIC HOLIDAY. DONALDSON JOINS FORUM ON IRISH FUTURE

Interesting take by Sinn Fein, taking the heat out of demands for a border poll - though surely that'll reverse quick if IndyRef2 happens - and pledging support for an all-Ireland July 12th public holiday (the day Orangemen - unionists - celebrate the historic 1690 victory of Protestant forces over those of the Catholic King James II; see Wiki). Irish Times.

IS UK USING STORMONT SUSPENSION POSSIBILITY AS BREXIT/PROTOCOL NEGOTIATING TOOL? DUP (PROTOCOL) + SINN FEIN (LANGUAGE ACT) DEADLINES TO WALK OUT ARE NOW DUE

Both parties had issued threats, saying their favoured part of the January 2020 NDNA agreement must be implemented before November or they'd walk out, collapsing power-sharing yet again.

The UK government had promised to intervene and pass a bill to create the Languages Act agreed in NDNA if it still hadn't been passed through Stormont. There is no activity on that front, but a bill is in Parliament now to change the period between a Stormont walk-out and suspension of power-sharing from one week to six months. See Irish Times.

DUP BREAKING LAW WITH NORTH-SOUTH MINISTERIAL COUNCIL MEETINGS BOYCOTT, BREACHING GFA

An extraordinary lawsuit has seen the DUP's ongoing boycott ruled unlawful, but no clear means of enforcing attendance. See BBC.

POLEXIT? AS UK REFUSES ECJ AUTHORITY OVER PROTOCOL POLAND FACES BEING FROZEN OUT OF EU FOR REJECTING EU LAW PRIMACY

This has been brewing as Poland steps back from democratic norms. A court ruling there confirms that Polish courts have primacy, NOT the European courts. That is simply not compatible with EU membership - the UK is making the same refusal over the NI Protocol - and so Poland could be blocked from all EU loans and finance ... and ultimately kicked out, despite having a strongly pro-EU populace. So did Scotland, NI, and Britain's younger generations though... Evening Standard.

OCTOBER: TRADE WAR? EU PREPARING CONCESSIONS BUT UK DISMISSING THESE IN ADVANCE?

Its likely a 'national identify exemption' will be offered on customs checks: goods from Britain, like the iconic sausage, intended for sale/consumption in NI only, NOT for further export to the RofI, will be exempted from customs checks. The suspicion is that the UK will reject any proposal for the political purpose of maintaining the high profile combative conflict with the EU, a distraction which helps party unity and to take attention off other issues. Remember, if the UK had agreed to maintain EU food and animal welfare standards this would not be necessary. A trade war is possible, but not inevitable:

'Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at the University of Cambridge, believes short sharp shocks in the form of tariffs on iconic British products such as Scottish whisky or salmon are more likely.

She also said that the ECJ is not a significant issue in relation to the trade of goods. Its annual report cites just 24 cases relating to customs union laws currently pending, among more than 1,045 in total.' (Guardian)

JUNE 2021 G7 MEETING SEES US REAFFIRM BIPARTISAN COMMITMENT TO GFA; PREPARED TO PUNISH UK

Guardian outlines why the GFA is a rare bipartisan area of agreement. Johnson saw this G7 meeting as his chance to look grand on the global stage and show the UK as a confident global player freed from the EU - instead he's being attacked by US and EU for breaching international treaties, and looking weak.

WILL DUP SPLIT, OR FACE LIBERALS DEFECTIONS TO UUP?

I'm predicting the DUP is doomed as the lead party of unionism. You can't be particularly liberal if you're a DUP member, formed with links to Paisley's fundamentalist church, but the manner of the forcing out of Arlene Foster (widely judged as sexist) and the fact that new leader Edwin Poots is a creationist (believes that the Bible is the literal truth, the Earth is only 4000 years old) is seeing splits become public.

Jeffrey Donaldson doomed the UUP decades ago when he quit to join the anti-GFA DUP. I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls the reverse trick. New Deputy Leader Paula Bradley spoke of her sympathy for women having to travel to England still for abortions, despite the vote of the House of Commons and court demands for NI to introduce abortion services. A day later she's seemingly forced to give an anti-abortion statement (BTele).

TUV leader Jim Wells is piling on pressure from the even further right-wing TUV, damning Poots for saying he'll support the Languages Act. Wells sees Ulster-Scots as a dialect and it's inclusion as a way of disguising Sinn Fein's victory. (BTele).

Meanwhile Peter Robinson, DUP veteran, has criticised how Foster was pushed out, comparing this to how Ian Paisley was more gently eased out. (BTele)

APRIL 2021

LOYALIST RIOTS AND ANTI-POLICE RHETORIC FOR SINN FEIN FUNERAL VERDICT, BUT ARE UNIONIST LEADERS CULPABLE FOR VIOLENCE LINKED TO USA DRUGS RAID?

Guardian (6.4.21) reports on continuing disturbances. Initially linked to outrage against the PSNI deciding not to prosecute the marchers at IRA chief Bobby Storey's funeral (denied permission under covid rules) on top of angst over the Irish Sea Brexit border, it is now widely understood to be co-ordinated by a faction of the UDA, a loyalist terror group.

Specifically the South Antrim (precisely where I'm from) UDA, subject of a large drugs raid recently. Terror groups on both sides carry out punishment beatings against drug dealers ... while 'secretly' controlling the trade themselves (including colluding across the republican/loyalist divide).

The DUP have shown support to LCC statements and have been slow to condemn violence they helped encourage. Masked loyalist bands have marched, presumably breaking Parade Commission legal requirements - a concrete expression of the LCC statement on withdrawing support for the GFA, while the DUP talk openly about boycotting GFA institutions - possibly including the Assembly. They joined in the condemnation of the PSNI over the no Storey funeral prosecution ruling.

That has been a PR disaster for Sinn Fein as everyone grows weary of covid restrictions while seeing SF get away with breaches. All this at a moment when both sides are undermining support for the PSNI, under fire (literally!) from unionists in a way not seen since 1985 and the Anglo-Irish Agreement gave Ireland a say in the running of NI.

The Good Friday Agreement is looking decidedly shakey right now.

MARCH 2021

FIANNA FAIL SUGGEST GUARANTEED UNIONIST POSITION IN ALL-IRISH GOVERNMENT, NEW CONSTITUTION. 53% IN REPUBLIC BACK REUNIFICATION.

Irish Times article shows that serious debate has begun with a referendum increasingly viewed as inevitable - though it's the BRITISH government NI Secretary who would make that decision, not Ireland or Stormont. While the rest is split between no's and don't knows, and yes would win easily on that basis, 53% for ain't great! 

STORMONT ABORTION BLOCKING SEES LONDON STEP IN AGAIN - BAD LOOK FOR BOTH DUP + SINN FEIN

Abortion is a useful issue to highlight hypocrisy of both the two dominant parties. The DUP reject the Irish Sea border as NI must be fully in line with GB ... unless we're talking about abortion, gay marriage or even teaching gender/sexual equality in schools. Sinn Fein's leftist brand, useful in the Republic of Ireland where the big 2 are similar conservative parties, stops abruptly on abortion where they're happy to enable the DUP (and UUP Health Minister Robin Swann) take the flak for continuing to obstruct and block abortion rights and provision, obscuring their own conservatism. They campaigned FOR and celebrated the (very limited) abortion legalisation referendum in the South, but they're not for going an inch further than rights which fall short of UN recommendations. Guardian.

UK GOV SHOULD PUBLISH CRITERIA FOR BORDER POLL SAYS EXPERT; WASHINGTON POST LOOK AT BARRIERS TO TWO REFERENDUMS

The New European reports on a call for better preparation for a reunification poll, and avoid the chaos of unplanned Brexit repeating.

The Washington Post similarly published a detailed analysis of the complications that stand in the way of a referendum happening - or succeeding.

The challenge of bringing unionists on board (can reunification work if most unionists vote against it?) is seen in the row over the UUP, DUP + TUV proposal to erect a centenary stone at Stormont - blocked by Sinn Fein. TUV leader Jim Allister complained "this is the party that talks most about respect for all communities, but when a modest proposal was made on behalf of the wider unionist community it was callously vetoed." The Alliance Party and SDLP had supported the proposal: "In a spirit of generosity, we were therefore supportive of the proposal which would have come at no cost to taxpayers and clearly had a great deal of meaning for unionists," said an SDLP spokesperson. BBC.

There's no way to spin this?!

EU LAUNCHES LEGAL CASE AGAINST UK UNILATERAL EXTENSION OF TRADE PROTOCOL GRACE PERIOD. US FRIENDS OF IRELAND CONGRESS GROUP APPALLED

It's a long, long way from PM Cameron's initial political miscalculation... Guardian.

The US Congress Friends of Ireland group spoke plainly to the EU's vice-president about how appalled they are at the UK's behaviour in unilaterally breaking international law in the form of the Brexit trade protocol. Guardian.

EX IRISH PM AHERN CALLS FOR 2028 BORDER POLL

Bertie Ahern helped negotiate the GFA as Irish Taoiseach (PM). He argues that IF nationalists and republicans "can convince our unionist friends this is the best thing for the whole island" the 30th anniversary of the 1998 GFA should be used for a border poll. He says reunification is inevitable. Irish Times.

BIDEN AND SENATE DECLARE BACKING FOR GFA IN WARNING TO UK AND JOHNSON. GB TO IRELAND EXPORTS FALL 65%

A Senate resolution will make the link between any UK/USA trade deal and maintaing the terms of the GFA firm and explicit. Irish Times.

The bill has now been formally entered by 1 Democrat + 1 Republican Senator. A vote is likely in April. Extraordinary crash in GB to Ireland export trade too: BBC.

DUP AND LOYALISTS KEEP HINTING AT VIOLENCE

Susan McKay writes in the Guardian on how while SF acknowledge their IRA ties, the unionist parties refuse to acknowledge their own. 

EU TO BLOCK UK DEAL OVER NI BORDER? AND LOYALISTS WITHDRAW GFA SUPPORT!

Sensational - awful - day for Northern Ireland politics. The EU declares the UK an untrustworthy partner as it unilaterally declares changes to the NI trade protocol (Guardian) while loyalist representatives declare they no longer support the GFA over the very same issue! (Guardian)

REES-MOGG SAYS UNIONISTS CAN VOTE DOWN BORDER PROTOCOL AS SIMPLE MAJORITY

Absolute dynamite and fundamental threat to the GFA if this is true and if it came about!!! BTele.

DUP HALT CUSTOMS WORK - SF, SDLP, ALLIANCE COMBINE TO PROTEST (BTele)

The DUP are taking their anti-protocol behaviour to the edge. Peter Robinson has signalled willingness to collapse Stormont. All the border poll talk does signal a crisis moment for unionism, and the DUP also face pressure to remain as the dominant voice of unionism. 

Sinn Fein Finance Minster Conor Murphy, SDLP Infrastructure Minister Nichola Mallon and Justice Minister Naomi Long have penned the joint letter to executive colleagues requesting the urgent meeting.

The letter, seen by the PA news agency, states: "This controversial and cross cutting matter requires the Executive to meet as a matter of urgency."

FEBRUARY

DUP MEET LOYALIST TERRORIST GROUP REPRESENTATIVES

BTele reports the latest move by the DUP to regain their credentials as the leading force within unionism.

INDIE: GB SAUSAGES BAN!

IRISH TIMES OPINION PIECE: SOUTH NEEDS TO RESPECT UNIONISTS BEFORE BORDER POLL

There are additional good articles linked within the art
icle too. It suggests the South hasn't really taken seriously the task of successfully integrating unionists. Another IT piece contrasts the welcoming response of the Ireland's Future campaign group with Paisley Jr's condemnation of a Max Hastings piece in Bloomberg in which he argues that reunification will happen within a generation, that the British (he's English, a former Daily Telegraph editor) don't care about Ireland, and this would correct the wrongs of 100 years ago that led to a segregated state like South Africa.

CHEEKY! SDLP MLA SENDS FOSTER AMAZON BREXIT BOOK TO PROVE SHE'S WRONG!

The BT: 'An SDLP MLA ordered First Minister Arlene Foster the book ‘Brexit & Ireland’ to highlight that Amazon packages are being delivered to Northern Ireland.

South Belfast MLA Matthew O’Toole’s effort came after DUP leader Mrs Foster claimed that both nationalists and unionists are suffering from Amazon delivery problems.'

ALLIANCE, UUP PROPOSALS TO TWEAK THE PROTOCOL: SWISS MODEL?

As the rhetoric from the DUP and loyalist groups spirals out of control, there have been some quite sensible proposals from the more moderate Alliance and UUP, including a 2 year extension to delaying full implementation. The BBC breaks down the possibilities. The BT reports on renewed IRISH SEA TUNNEL reports too.

DUP SUPPORT SLUMPS, LOYALISTS SWITCHING TO TUV. ALLIANCE TO BE 2ND BIGGEST BEHIND SINN FEIN?

The DUP have always hinted they'd never support a Sinn Fein First Minister ... but their ill-judged Brexit moves and dance with Boris has seen them slip to just 1% ahead of Alliance (19 to 18%, with SF on 24%) in the polls. The (even more) hard-line TUV are picking up the support they're losing, a more explicitly loyalist, not just unionist, party. Could they lose not just the First Minister position but also fail to get Deputy First Minister? 

There's a crisis ahead here - the D'Hondt system assumed dominant nationalist and unionist blocs, a centrist, non-sectarian party doesn't nearly fit the power-sharing model (which has seen reforms, but I don't think it's ready for this). Belfast Te
legraph. The PUP have also been ramping up the rhetoric, calling for a coalition of all unionists to smash the Irish Sea border, if necessary boycotting Eire. BT.

Indie also report on a Protestant, former unionist, SDLP candidate and the momentum on a reunification referendum.

The SDLP is warning that unionist/loyalist tactics, threatening boycotts of North/South institutions, could collapse Stormont yet again (BT).

BBC: The DUP succeeded in getting 140,000 to sign a petition demanding Article 16 is triggered, leading to a Commons debate on Feb 22nd. Given the clear crisis this poses for NI unionism that's maybe not so impressive. Former leader Peter Robinson has voiced the growing idea of boycotting Stormont unless and until Article 16 is triggered. That's not official DUP policy YET, but Foster is hinting at support. NI is stuck in crisis mode with a UK PM who has shown willingness to treat NI, not least unionists, with disdain. As the lengthy Uni of Bath article at the top of this post shows, Article 16 would threaten to demolish the GFA, which is heavily based on NI's permanent EU links to maintain a soft border.

JANUARY

UUP JOINS DUP RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINERY (UK ARMY PAPERWORK REQUIREMENT!)

The nature of the union that unionists are focused on upholding has been changed by Brexit, and the UUP have now joined the more strident DUP in voicing their rage against the dawning of light, in this case over the perception that UK military movements to/from NI are restricted by the need to submit paperwork for any equipment used. BBC.

EU UNITES SF, DUP, UK, EIRE IN ANGER OVER INVOKING ARTICLE 16

An extraordinary row! The EU Commission invoked Article 16 - the block on NI's status within the EU trading bloc! - to stop vaccines moving from the EU to the UK.

After all of the above (including EU member R. of Ireland remember!) expressed outrage the Commission backtracked, saying they had committed an error...

So, here we see the result of UK intransigence and antagonism, now reflected back over the still very live grenade of covid vaccines by the Anglo-Swedish conglomerate Astra-Zeneca, which the EU perceives as sending out vaccines that should be used to meet the much later-placed EU order. Free market principles indeed 😂 (See Guardian)

MAJORITY IN NI NOW WANT BORDER POLL

Belfast Telegraph report on a survey which shows

- small majority now want a border poll

- but 47% to 42% against reunification

- however! majority for reunification in under 45s

- big majority in England for it or don't care

Scottish independence is expected across the UK population despite Johnson's stated determination to block Indyref2 even if the SNP yet again win a majority in the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections, as polls predict they will.

Sky News carried an interview with Arlene Foster on this, quite interesting response.

Meantime, Paisley Jr has been attracting multiple negative headlines for controversial statements - I wonder is he thinking of a leadership challenge again? The latest occasion was the Commons Northern Ireland Affairs Committee, the standing committee that oversees the work of the NIO and NI Secretary (see Belfast Telegraph). An Alliance MP and a Tory criticised his use of "the Catholic IRA".

LOYALIST GROUP EXPRESSES ANGER TO NIO

Belfast Telegraph. The SDLP aren't happy that the NIO would meet with proscribed (banned/illegal) groups (also B. Telegraph)

2021 CENTENARY ROW: SF TO MARK 50 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF INTERNMENT?

The row over whether or not to celebrate the centenary of NI's 1921 formation could get serious with 2021 also marking 50 years since internment.

That move by the British government did much to fuel and sustain the cause of violent republicanism, including boosting financial support from the USA. Loyalists would also be caught up in the stunningly undemocratic policy but it was clearly aimed at squashing republicanism.

The DUP are likely to react with fury over any move to replace celebrations with remembrance over this authoritarian move, a row that could become destabilising to the business of Stormont, and see questions raised about the status of the IRA - police reports continue to describe them as having active elements. See Belfast Telegraph.

BBC QUESTION TIME HAS NI EPISODE, NI SECRETARY TALKS OF EU TRADE ADVANTAGE FOR NI

Janus, the two-faced mythical Roman god, would be proud of the fiercely pro-Brexit Tory NI Secretary bigging up the huge advantage NI has with its stronger trade links with the EU, unlike GB. Social media has lit up with a barrage of belittlement. You can watch the episode here - I could only find it on the SF channel through a YT search.

NI COULD BE CUT FROM UK-USA TRADE DEAL

In an otherwise positive analysis of the impact of Biden replacing Trump on the NI economy there's the interesting point that as NI remains tied to EU conditions the expected food elements of any UK-USA trade deal could mean it's GB-USA only.

'He posited that one of the key US demands will be increased access to the UK market for its food products.

"Given that one of the key aspects of NI's Protocol is that we are still applying all the EU's animal and food safety standards it is hard to see how NI could allow in US agricultural products," Dr Birnie said.' (Belfast Telegraph)

DUP COULD INVOKE WITHDRAWAL DEAL ARTICLE 16 TO KILL NI OPT-OUT

Ian Paisley Jr is trying to bounce Arlene Foster into supporting a vote in the Assembly to invoke Article 16 which allows the NIA to stop the trade/border arrangements. Belfast Telegraph.

LOYALISTS WANT DUP TO WRECK STORMONT TO KILL IRISH SEA BORDER

This is the argument from loyalist Jamie Bryson in his new book: make it "ungovernable" is his idea. Belfast Telegraph. And Indie a day later with more quotes from Paisley etc.

A few days later and multiple English MPs have joined the unionist calls for change as empty supermarket shelves become a reality. Belfast Telegraph. 

But really, the DUP position is impossible. They stood for not just Brexit but even no-deal Brexit, and kept the Tories in power for 2 years, also giving legitimacy to Johnson. They don't want damage to the NI economy - but that means minimising disruption to both trade with the EU through Ireland and the UK too. One or both has to take a big hit, and it's an uncomfortable position for unionists to be seen arguing that the all-Ireland economy is crucial.

Jeffrey Donaldson is going to use an oral urgent question in the Commons in a bid to get the trade deal scrapped, citing 17 examples of how it has impacted trade between GB and NI. The UUP also want it scrapped but are campaigning for a longer delay to fully enacting it. Belfast Telegraph.

And he did! (Guardian) 'Westminster, says trade between Britain and Northern Ireland is not working. He says direct intervention is needed.

Johnson says there are “teething problems”, but he says no lorries have turned back.

If there are problems deemed disproportionate, the government would be willing to invoke article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol.'

Here's a good BBC summary; Paisley actually asked "what did we do to members on those benches over there to be screwed over by this protocol?"

END OF THE UNION?

BTele. While Foster claims NI shows its adaptability heading into its centenary both SF and SDLP are adamant that Brexit has doomed the union. SDLP leader Colum Eastwood said it's important not to be triumphalist - but that reunification is now inevitable.

2020

DECEMBER

EVERYONE ELSE BLAMES DUP FOR IRISH SEA BORDER!

Belfast Telegraph. Former UUP leader Lord Empey joined the SDLP and Alliance in blaming DUP hubris, agreeing to a Boris Johnson proposal in October 2019, for the effective Irish Sea border. The SDLP say this is the end for the union, while Alliance condemn Brexit, with all NI MPs (obviously excluding Sinn Fein) voting against the final Brexit Withdrawal bill.

ALL NI PARTIES OPPOSE TORY BREXIT DEAL?!

Seems so... BBC.

A series of BBC reports (look at the end of the article for stories from 2018 and 2019) based on official Irish government papers being released after the 20 year secrecy rule has insights on how the Tories loathed and scorned Unionists, Major was seen as more likely to negotiate than Thatcher (correct!!), the IRA Army Council were in part hostile to Sinn Fein's socialist outlook, and more. BBC.

Here's how the NI parties reacted to the Dec 24 2020 Brexit deal (BBC) - cautiously welcomed by DUP and SF for bringing some clarity, but SDLP, UUP and Alliance focus on the damage of Brexit (the UUP more on the Irish Sea border which ultimately the DUP will surely react against too?).

The BBC is doing a series of features in late December 2020 building up to the 2021 centenary of NI's formation. Here they consider the 5 steps that led to an Irish Sea border.

Presidential candidate Biden and House (of Representatives, US Congress) Speaker Nancy Pelosi both warned PM Johnson that his law-breaking proposal would undermine the GFA ... and that they would block any UK-US trade deal if that happens. (Guardian) Late Nov 2020, Biden restates his firm opposition publicly. (Guardian) Also analysis of how strong Biden's Irish-American identification is, with a mention of Obama and Clinton's Irish links and how they're proclaimed in Ireland - and how the Irish identity claiming Trump is reviled.

Amid all the pints and poetry, it is perhaps telling that the most consistently cited proof of Biden’s fighting Irish spirit is that members of his party showed displeasure with Johnson’s internal market bill, on the fairly reasonable grounds that it breaks international law and places at risk the Good Friday agreement. It should be remembered that the latter is not disputed territory on a war-torn map, but an article of British law to which Biden seems more committed than the nation who authored it, for whom it has facilitated two decades of fragile but existent peace. (Guardian)

But Tory MPs have backed down from a threatened rebellion even as legal experts quit government posts. (Guardian)